Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1845
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 1845 · FAT → SAN
departs 5:40 PM PT · arrives 6:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/5 35%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
Weather at each end
FAT (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.