Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1997
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 1997 · BWI → TPA
departs 5:05 PM ET · arrives 7:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 25%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
9%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.