Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1997
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 1997 · BWI → TPA
departs 2:15 PM ET · arrives 4:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 47%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.03 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.