Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 200
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 200 · BWI → ONT
departs 8:10 PM ET · arrives 10:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 31%
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
+20 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
ONT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.