Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 200
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 200 · BWI → ONT
departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 10/2 50%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
↓
BWI is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
ONT (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.