Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2158
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2158 · JAX → BWI
departs 2:15 PM ET · arrives 4:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±0 pts
+25 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +25 pts in 24h
+25 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.45 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.