Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2158
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2158 · JAX → BWI
departs 2:30 PM ET · arrives 4:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.42 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.