Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2159
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2159 · JAX → BWI
departs 7:30 PM ET · arrives 9:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4 44%
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+22 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
53%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.43 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.