Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2159
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2159 · JAX → BWI
departs 7:30 PM ET · arrives 9:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 58%
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.42 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.