Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2161 · JAX → DEN
departs 5:20 PM ET · arrives 6:50 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 39%
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
63%
chance · ±0 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
63%
Leave 15+ late
57%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
57%
Yes 57%
No 43%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
↓
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at DEN that day
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.36 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.