Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2172
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2172 · KOA → OGG
departs 1:55 PM HT · arrives 2:40 PM HT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 8%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
This flight has been late 10% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG
Weather at each end
KOA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.13 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.