Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2172
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 2172 · KOA → OGG
departs 1:55 PM HT · arrives 2:40 PM HT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at KOA that day
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
This flight has been late 10% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG
Weather at each end
KOA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.05 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.