Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 2286 · LAS → OAK
departs 5:10 PM PT · arrives 6:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 24%
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 20%
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at OAK that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.