Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2286 · LAS → LGB
departs 5:50 PM PT · arrives 7:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±5 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
5pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGB (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.