Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2406 LANDED 11:08 PM ET, ON TIME · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 2406 · MDW → DCA

took off 8:52 PM CT · landed 11:08 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at DCA that day

↑ 9pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at MDW that day

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.12 in

DCA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2406 · MDW → DCA

Odds over time