Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2441
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 2441 · LAX → TPA
departs 4:10 PM PT · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 38%
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.