Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2441
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 2441 · LAX → TPA
departs 4:10 PM PT · arrives 11:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.