Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2441
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 2441 · LAX → TPA
departs 3:05 PM PT · arrives 10:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 27%
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.