Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2469
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2469 · LGA → MDW
departs 9:30 PM ET · arrives 11:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 58%
Mon 10/5 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
43%
chance · ±0 pts
−21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
43%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
8%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −21 pts in 24h
−21 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −24 pts in 24h
−24 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
8%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.