Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2473
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2473 · LGA → STL
departs 12:00 PM ET · arrives 1:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 17%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at STL that day
↑
12pm departures from LGA are often late
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.