Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2473
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 2473 · LGA → STL
departs 10:45 AM ET · arrives 12:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
10am departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
LGA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.