Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2509
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2509 · LIH → HNL
departs 8:20 AM HT · arrives 9:05 AM HT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 2%
Sun 10/4 2%
Mon 10/5 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave LIH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at LIH that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
8am departures from LIH are usually not late
↓
This flight has been late 9% of the time recently
Weather at each end
LIH (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.24 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.