Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 2515 · LIH → OGG
departs 1:50 PM HT · arrives 2:45 PM HT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 11%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LIH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at LIH that day
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↓
LIH usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG
Weather at each end
LIH (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.61 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.