Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 2515 · LIH → OGG
departs 1:50 PM HT · arrives 2:45 PM HT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 13%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave LIH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
LIH is busy at that time
↓
LIH usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LIH (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.