Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2852 LANDED 10:28 PM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 2852 · MCO → TUL

took off 9:06 PM ET · landed 10:28 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ TUL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

TUL (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2852 · MCO → TUL

Odds over time