Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2944 LANDED 10:27 PM CT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Friday, October 2

WN 2944 · MCO → BHM

took off 10:12 PM ET · landed 10:27 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precipnone

BHM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling3,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2944 · MCO → BHM

Odds over time