Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2962
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 2962 · MSP → BNA
departs 4:00 PM CT · arrives 6:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 31%
Mon 10/5 17%
Fri 10/9 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±1 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,433 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 10,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.