Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2990
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 2990 · MSY → DCA
departs 5:20 PM CT · arrives 8:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 55%
Mon 10/5 35%
Fri 10/9 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
76%
chance · ±3 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
76%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
41%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 71% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
76%
Yes 76%
No 24%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 60% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
28%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MSY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.76 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.