Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3023
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 3023 · TPA → IND
departs 8:55 PM ET · arrives 11:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 28%
Fri 10/9 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
−9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.