Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 3196 · PVD → BWI
departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 7:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 16%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 17%
Fri 10/9 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PVD (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.03 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.