Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 3196 · PVD → BWI
departs 5:20 PM ET · arrives 6:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from PVD are often late
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PVD (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.07 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.