Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3231
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3231 · SMF → PHX
departs 4:40 PM PT · arrives 6:35 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.