Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3231
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 3231 · SMF → PHX
departs 5:55 PM PT · arrives 8:00 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3 28%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.