Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3414
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3414 · PWM → BWI
departs 5:20 PM ET · arrives 7:05 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 16%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from PWM are often late
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.13 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.