Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3414
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
WN 3414 · PWM → BWI
departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 7:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 45%
Sat 10/3 20%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BWI that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
PWM is prone to delays
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at PWM that day
Weather at each end
PWM (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.