Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3425
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
WN 3425 · RDU → BWI
departs 8:20 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 25%
Sun 10/4 42%
Mon 10/5 16%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.