Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3425
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 3425 · RDU → BWI
departs 7:50 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
RDU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.27 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.