Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 3470 · RSW → PIT
departs 4:45 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 26%
Mon 10/5 26%
Fri 10/9 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↓
RSW usually runs smoothly
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RSW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.