Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3480
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 3480 · SAN → BNA
departs 10:40 PM PT · arrives 4:45 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 42%
Mon 10/5 11%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.2d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at BNA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are usually not late
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.