Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3530 · SAN → SAT
departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 1:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 39%
Sun 10/4 48%
Mon 10/5 32%
Wed 10/7 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
63%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.1d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
19%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↑
This flight has been late 54% of the time recently
↑
8pm departures from SAN are often late
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.