Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3530
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 3530 · SAN → SAT
departs 6:25 PM PT · arrives 11:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 50%
Mon 10/5 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
This flight has been late 54% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAT (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.