Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 3709 · HOU → TPA
departs 2:40 PM CT · arrives 5:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 34%
Sun 10/4 48%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at HOU that day
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 0.47 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.