Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3709
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
WN 3709 · HOU → TPA
departs 2:45 PM CT · arrives 6:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 51%
Mon 10/5 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±2 pts
−11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
↑
2pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
TPA (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.