Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3800
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 3800 · ELP → PHX
departs 9:30 PM MT · arrives 9:55 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Mon 10/5 33%
Fri 10/9 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
75%
chance · ±0 pts
+38 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
75%
Leave 15+ late
84%
Arrive 1h+ late
44%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
4.1d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +38 pts in 24h
+38 pts
75%
Yes 75%
No 25%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +47 pts in 24h
+47 pts
84%
Yes 84%
No 16%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +33 pts in 24h
+33 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
25%
15–30 min late
57%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
9pm departures from ELP are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.