Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3964
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 3964 · STL → MSY
departs 9:50 PM CT · arrives 11:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 28%
Mon 10/5 18%
Fri 10/9 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from STL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at STL that day
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.