Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4006
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2
WN 4006 · TPA → BNA
departs 8:45 PM ET · arrives 9:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 46%
Mon 10/5 23%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 57%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.06 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.