Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
WN 4015 · TPA → DAL
departs 9:30 PM ET · arrives 10:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 44%
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±6 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.26 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.86 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.