Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4015 · TPA → DAL
departs 8:45 PM ET · arrives 10:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 89%
Fri 10/2 56%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
TPA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.32 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.