Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Today
WN 4015 · TPA → DAL
departs 9:30 PM ET · arrives 10:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/2 56%
Sat 10/3 46%
Sun 10/4 38%
Mon 10/5 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
79%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
79%
Leave 15+ late
71%
Arrive 1h+ late
40%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
79%
Yes 79%
No 21%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
71%
Yes 71%
No 29%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
19%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
28%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 3.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DAL that day
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.58 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 3.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.