Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4016 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4016 · TPA → DCA

departs 9:45 AM ET · arrives 12:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4016 · TPA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?